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Ratings of parties in elections to the Verkhovna Rada: March 2012

http://ratinggroup.com.ua/en/products/politic/data/entry/13994/
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2012/04/02

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According to the research conducted by the Sociological group "Rating" if elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine occured in March 2012, 42% of respondents would definitely participate in them, while 33% would likely participate.

As compared to the previous month, the level of voters’ mobilization has not changed. The highest level of mobilization is fixed in the West and in the North, the lowest - in the East, in Donbas and in the South of the country. For comparison: in the West a third more people than in Donbas intend to participate in elections. The highest level of mobilization is observed among supporters of Batkivshchyna, Freedom, the CPU and the Party of Regions.

RESULTS:

If elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine occured in March 2012, 21.3% of respondents (among those who would participate in elections) would vote for the Party of Regions, 20.9% -for Batkivshchyna, 9.9% - for the Front for Change, 7.4% - for the Communist Party, 7.2% - for  V. Klychko’s party UDAR, 4.3% - for Freedom. Other 2.7% of voters would support Civil Position, 1.5% - the People's Party.

About 1% of voters would support the European Party of Ukraine, the Ukrainian Social Democratic Party (N.Korolevska’s party " Forward, Ukraine!") and Our Ukraine.

The rest of the parties are supported by about 4%, undecided - 17.7%.

 

TENDENCIES:

  • As compared to February, ratings of Batkivshchyna have somewhat increased (from 19.6 to 20.9%) as well as ratings of the Party of Regions (from 18.2 to 21.3%). The positions of the latter have improved in the first place because of the takeover of S. Tihipko’s Strong Ukraine. This enabled the Party of Regions to lead in the party ratings with the minimal advantage.
  • Against this background, the indices of the Front for Change have decreased (from 11.2 to 9.9%). We can assume that it was influenced by negotiations of the union of the Front for Change and Batkivshchyna with the latter being the basis. It is worth reminding that according to the February research of the Sociological group "Rating", supporters of the Front for Change have a much worse attitude towards such a union (only 75% are ready to support a unified register) than supporters of Batkivshchyna (90%).
  • The party UDAR continues to show growth: from 5% last December to 6.5% - in February and to 7.2% - in March.
  • As compared to February ratings of the CPU (7.4%) have not changed.
  • Positions of Freedom are absolutely stable over the previous 4 months (4.3%): the party is still close to overcoming the 5% barrier in elections.
  • Civil Position has added some points (from 2.1 to 2.7%).
  • After the exclusion of the "against all" option from the research (in February it was 7.9%), number of "undecided" has increased - from 13.9 to 17.7%. Thus, at least a half of the "against all" category has moved into the category of " undecided", yet some of these votes are re-distributed between the parties.

 

The target audience of the research: the population of Ukraine aged from 18 and older.

Optional quantity: 2000 respondents.

The methods of investigation: personal formalized interview according to the questionnaire (face to face).

Measure of inaccuracy for the values close to 50% is less than 2.2%, for the values close to 30% – less than 2%, for the values close to 10% – less than 1.3.

The period of completion: 15-26 of March 2012

The oblast’ distribution:

West: Volyns’ka, Transcarpathia, Ivano–Frankivs’ka, L’vivs’ka, Rivnens’ka, Ternopil’s’ka, Chernivets’ka.

Centre: Vinnyts’ka, Kirovograds’ka, Poltavs’ka, Khmel’nyts’ka, Cherkas’ka.

North: Kyiv, Kyivs’ka, Zhytomyrs’ka, Sums’ka, Chernihivs’ka.

South: AR Crimea, Odes’ka, Khersons’ka, Mykolaivs’ka, Sevastopol

East: Dnipropetrovs’ka, Zaporiz’ka, Kharkivs’ka.

Donbass: Donets’ka, Luhans’ka.


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