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Electoral moods of the Ukrainian population: September 2011

http://ratinggroup.com.ua/en/products/politic/data/entry/13967/
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2011/09/30

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According to the research conducted by the Sociological group "Rating", if elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine took place at the end of September 2011, 32% of respondents would definitely participate in them, 34% would rather participate. As to presidential elections, the activity is somewhat higher: 33% of respondents would definitely take part in them, 35% would rather take part. The most mobilized are voters of Freedom, UDAR and Batkivshchyna.

RESULTS:

If elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine took place at the end of September 2011, 21.9% of respondents (among those who would participate in the elections) would vote for the Party of Regions, 18.9% - for Batkivshchyna, 11% - for the Front for Change, 5,7%  - for the Communist Party, 5.4% - for V. Klitschko’s party UDAR, 4.2% - for Freedom.

Other 1.7% of voters would support Civil Position, 1.6% - People's Party, 0.8% each - Our Ukraine and the Socialist Party. 4.2% of voters would support other parties, including Oleg Lyashko’s Radical Party - 0.2% (researched for the first time). 12.6% would not support any of the parties ("against all"), undecided - 11.3%.

Thus, if elections were held at the end of September and the threshold for eligibility remained at 3% or 4%, six parties would get to the Parliament: the Party of Regions, Batkivshchyna, Front for Change, the CPU, UDAR and Freedom.

If presidential elections of Ukraine were held at the end of September 2011, 21% of respondents (among those who would participate in the elections) would vote for V. Yanukovych, 18% - for Y. Tymoshenko, 11.7% - for A. Yatsenyuk, 6,6% - for V. Klitschko, 5.5% - for P. Symonenko, 3.5% - for O. Tiahnybok, 2.9% - for S. Tihipko, 2.6% - for A. Hrytsenko. Other candidates would be supported by almost 5%, 10.7% would not support any of the candidates ("against all"), undecided - 12.6%.

 

TENDENCIES:

  • As compared to May, ratings of the leaders have hardly changed: the stability of indices of the Party of Regions was partly contributed to by the flow from Strong Ukraine (more on the attitude towards the union between the Party of Regions and Strong Ukraine and the possible electoral impact - in following press releases); of Batkivshchyna – by a high level of voters’ mobilization stimulated by lawsuits.
  • Instead, indices of the Front for Change (the rating rose from 9.3 to 11% since May), the CPU (from 4.5 to 5.7%) and UDAR (from 4 to 5.4%) have increased. The leaders of the mentioned parties have also added in ratings: A. Yatsenyuk (from 10.1 to 11.7%), V. Klitschko (from 5 to 6.6%) and P. Symonenko (from 2.9 to 5.5%). V. Klitschko ranked 4th in the presidential rating for the first time. Remember that previously V. Klitschko’s ratings have also increased (from 3 to 5% in May).
  • At the same time positions of Freedom have deteriorated (from 5.5% to 4.2%), while the rating of the party leader O. Tiahnybok has remained the same (3.5%).
  • Yet, the biggest loss was suffered by S. Tihipko, whose rating decreased by half since May (to 3%).
  • The number of respondents who do not support any of the parties continues to increase (from 7% last December, 10% in March, 12% in May to 13% in September). The number of respondents who have not made their choice is also increasing (from 8% in March, 9% in May to 11% in September). One of the reasons for the growing number of undecided and the "against all" group is the refusal of Strong Ukraine to participate in elections independently.

 

All data are presented among respondents who intend to participate in elections.

The target audience of the research: the population of Ukraine aged from 18 and older.

Optional quantity: 2000 respondents.

The methods of investigation: personal formalized interview according to the questionnaire (face to face).

Measure of inaccuracy for the values close to 50% is less than 2,2%, for the values close to 30% – less than 2%, for the values close to 10% – less than 1,3.

The period of completion: 17-27 of September 2011

The oblast’ distribution:

West: Volyns’ka, Transcarpathia, Ivano–Frankivs’ka, L’vivs’ka, Rivnens’ka, Ternopil’s’ka, Chernivets’ka.

Centre: Vinnyts’ka, Kirovograds’ka, Poltavs’ka, Khmel’nyts’ka, Cherkas’ka.

North: Kyiv, Kyivs’ka, Zhytomyrs’ka, Sums’ka, Chernihivs’ka.

South: AR Crimea, Odes’ka, Khersons’ka, Mykolaivs’ka, Sevastopol

East: Dnipropetrovs’ka, Zaporiz’ka, Kharkivs’ka.

Donbass: Donets’ka, Luhans’ka.


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