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Electoral moods of the Ukrainian population: December 2010

http://ratinggroup.com.ua/en/products/politic/data/entry/13942/
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2010/12/21

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In order to bring results of the sociological research closer to parties’ results, which they receive in elections, all indices, presented in the release, are calculated according to answers of respondents who intend to participate in elections.

Thus, according to the research conducted by the Sociological Group "Rating", if elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine took place in mid-December, 26% of respondents would definitely take part in them, other 38% would rather take part. The activity during presidential elections is traditionally higher: if elections of the President of Ukraine took place in mid-December, 31% of respondents would definitely take part in them, other 37% would rather take part. Such a relatively low turnout is, on one hand, the result of a low turnout in local elections in October 2010; on the other hand it is the result of citizens’ festive mood.

Voters of the Communist Party, Freedom, Batkivshchyna and the Party of Regions are the most mobilized.

As of mid-December, the highest position in the presidential rating is held by Viktor Yanukovych, supported by 32% of respondents who would participate in elections if they were held next Sunday. The second position is kept by Y. Tymoshenko, who is supported by 19.9%. S. Tihipko is supported by 8.2%, A. Yatsenyuk - 8%, O. Tiahnybok - 5%, P. Symonenko - 3,4%, V. Klitschko - 2,7%, V. Yushchenko - 1,8% Hrytsenko - 1,4%.

2,1% of respondents are ready to support another candidate, 5,6% - do not support any. 9.1% of respondents who would participate in elections if they were held next Sunday have not decided.

In the parties’ rating the first place is held by the Party of Regions, which is supported by 30% of respondents who would participate in elections if they were held next Sunday.

The second position is held by Batkivshchyna, which is supported by 19,6%.

Front for Change is supported by 7,2%, Strong Ukraine – by 6,4%, Freedom – by 6,2%, the Communist Party of Ukraine – by 4,8%. All of the above political forces would get into the Parliament if elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine took place next Sunday. There are chances that V. Klitschko’s party “UDAR” would get into the Parliament, it is supported by 2,7% of voters.

Our Ukraine, which is supported by 1,6%, holds the next position in the rating, A. Hrytsenko’s Civil Position is supported by 1%, the Socialist Party of Ukraine - by 0,8%, the People's Party – by 0.7% and V. Baloha’s United Center – by 0,6%.

In general, 2,3% of respondents  are ready to support other parties, 7,4% - do not support any party. 8,7% of respondents, who would participate in elections if they were held next Sunday have not decided.

Compared to the similar research, conducted by the Sociological Group “Rating” in October this year, the following trends are recorded:

Ratings of V. Yanukovych and Y. Tymoshenko have stabilized at levels of 32% and 20% respectively. Over the past three months the gap between politicians has stabilized also; it is now 10-12%, while in the middle of the year it was 20% to 30%. Due to voters’ mobilization, the rating of Batkivshchyna has approached the leader’s rating.

Over the past two months, V. Yanukovych has improved his positions in the South and in the Center. He retained his positions in the West, in the North and in the East. Y. Tymoshenko has improved her positions in the East and in the Center; her positions worsened in the West.

Positions of A. Yatsenyuk continue to improve (4,7% - in March, 5,8% - in April, 5,1% - in June, 5,2% - in September, 7,1% - in October and 8% - in December). Positions of  S. Tihipko continue to decrease (13,2% - in March, 13,6% - in April, 13,2% - in June, 12,8% - in September, 10% - in October and 8.2% - in December). As a result, at the level of political parties Strong Ukraine (6,4%) for the first time this year has given the third place to the Front for Change (7,2%) and is likely to give the fourth place to Freedom (6,2%).

O. Tiahnybok’s rating continues to increase (from 2,8% in October to 5% in December), as well as the rating of Freedom (from 4% in October to 6,2% in December). This trend is especially characteristic of the West, where O. Tiahnybok’s rating is 17%.

Positions of the CPU remain stable (4.3% in October against 4.8% in December), which allows to count on a place in the next parliament. The greatest growth of Communists’ ratings is observed in Donbas.

Over the past two months, V. Klitschko’s party “UDAR” has improved its positions by nearly two times (from 1,5% in October to 2,7% in December). In the presidential rating, V. Klitschko is ahead of V. Yushchenko, A. Hrytsenko, and V. Lytvyn.

 

The target audience of the research: the population of Ukraine aged from 18 and older.  

Optional quantity: 2000 respondents. 

The methods of investigation: personal formalized interview according to the questionnaire (face to face). 

Measure of inaccuracy for the values close to 50% is less than 3%, for the values close to 30% – less than 2,6%, for the values close to 10% – less than 1,8. 

The period of completion: 11-18 of December 2010

The oblast’ distribution:

West: Volyns’ka, Transcarpathia, Ivano–Frankivs’ka, L’vivs’ka, Rivnens’ka, Ternopil’s’ka, Chernivets’ka.

Centre: Vinnyts’ka, Kirovograds’ka, Poltavs’ka, Khmel’nyts’ka, Cherkas’ka.

North: Kyiv, Kyivs’ka, Zhytomyrs’ka, Sums’ka, Chernihivs’ka.

South: AR Crimea, Odes’ka, Khersons’ka, Mykolaivs’ka, Sevastopol

East: Dnipropetrovs’ka, Zaporiz’ka, Kharkivs’ka.

Donbass: Donets’ka, Luhans’ka.


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